A certain federal agency employs three consulting firms (A, B and C) with probabilities 0.40, 0.45 and 0.15. From past experiences, it is known that the probability of cost overruns for the firms are 0.01, 0.14, and 0.17, respectively. Suppose that a cost overrun is experienced by the agency. What is the probability that the firm involved is firm B

Answers

Answer 1

Answer:

68.11% probability that the firm involved is firm B

Step-by-step explanation:

Bayes Theorem:

Two events, A and B.

[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{P(B)*P(A|B)}{P(A)}[/tex]

In which P(B|A) is the probability of B happening when A has happened and P(A|B) is the probability of A happening when B has happened.

In this question:

Event A: Cost overrun

Event B: Agency B used.

A certain federal agency employs three consulting firms (A, B and C) with probabilities 0.40, 0.45 and 0.15.

This means that [tex]P(B) = 0.45[/tex]

From past experiences, it is known that the probability of cost overruns for the firms are 0.01, 0.14, and 0.17, respectively.

This means that [tex]P(A|B) = 0.14[/tex]

Probability of cost overrun.

Firm A is used 40% of the time, with 1% of these having cost overrun. B is used 45%, with 14% of these having cost overruns. C is used 15% of the time, with 17% of these having cost overruns.

So

[tex]P(A) = 0.4*0.01 + 0.45*0.14 + 0.15*0.17 = 0.0925[/tex]

What is the probability that the firm involved is firm B

[tex]P(B|A) = \frac{0.45*0.14}{0.0925} = 0.6811[/tex]

68.11% probability that the firm involved is firm B


Related Questions

Identify J rounded to the nearest tenth. Please Explain!

Answers

Answer:

121.1

Step-by-step explanation:

By law of sines, (sin <I)/i = (sin <J)/j. Plugging in the values we know, we get sin 72deg / 206 = sin 34deg / j. When we solve for k, we get that it is about 121.122. Rounded to the nearest tenth, we get that j is 121.1.

Before reporting the results of the survival analysis, the investigators compared baseline characteristics of the 38 people who withdrew from the study before its end to those who had complete follow up. this was done for which of the following reason?a. To test whether randomization was successful
b. To check for changes in prognosis over time
c. To check whether those who remained in the study represent the total study population
d. To determine whether the outcome of those who remained in the study is the same as the outcome of the underlying population
e. To check for confounders in the exposed and nonexposed groups

Answers

Answer:

the answer is D.

Step-by-step explanation:

POSSIBLE POINTS
A toy box contains 12 colored toys and 12 white toys. If you pick out 3 toys at random, what is the probability that they will all be white?

Answers

Answer:

12white

12 coloured

12-12=0

j/k-0.02k when j=25 and k=5

Answers

Answer: 4.98

Step-by-step explanation:fractions are dividing so if j=25 and k=5 the division problem would be 25 divided by 5 then u would subtract 0.02 to get 4.98

If you go out to eat with 3 friends and your meal was $72.50, there is a 6.75% sales tax and you should tip the waiter 15%. How much should each person pay?
1)Tax $???
2)Total meal cost $???
3)Tip $???
4)Total cost of meal with tip $???
5)Price per person $???

Answers

The answer you are looking for is 4

Answer:

5 CAUSE ITS PER PERSON

Find the gradient of the line 2y=-6x+1 =

Answers

Answer:

A line in form of y = ax + b has the gradient a.

      2y = -6x + 1

<=> y = -3x + 1/2

=> The gradient of this line: g = -3

Hope this helps!

:)

The slope represents the gradient of the line. Then the gradient of the line will be - 3.

What is a linear equation?

A connection between a number of variables results in a linear model when a graph is displayed. The variable will have a degree of one.

The linear equation is given as,

y = mx + c

Where m is the slope of the line and c is the y-intercept of the line.

The linear equation is given below.

2y = - 6x + 1

Convert the equation into a slope-intercept form. Then we have

2y = - 6x + 1

y = - 3x + 1/3

The slope represents the gradient of the line. Then the gradient of the line will be - 3.

More about the linear equation link is given below.

https://brainly.com/question/11897796

#SPJ2

What is 5 square root28 plus square root 63 in simplest radical form

Answers

Answer:

  13√7

Step-by-step explanation:

  [tex]5\sqrt{28} +\sqrt{63} =5\sqrt{2^2\cdot 7}+\sqrt{3^2\cdot 7}\\\\=5\cdot 2\sqrt{7}+3\sqrt{7}=(10+3)\sqrt{7}\\\\=\boxed{13\sqrt{7}}[/tex]

Twelve books cost £51.60. How many books would I get for £193.50?

Answers

Answer:

45 books

Step-by-step explanation:

12=51.60

how about 193.50

193.50 x 12=2322 / 51.60=45 books    

Answer:45 books

Solution,

Books Price

12 51.60

X(suppose) 193.50

In case of Direct proportion,

12/X=51.60/193.50

or,51.60x=2322( cross multiplication)

or,X=2322/51.60

X=45

Hope it helps

Good luck on your assignment

A dead body was found within a closed room of a house where the temperature was a constant 65° F. At the time of discovery the core temperature of the body was determined to be 80° F. One hour later a second measurement showed that the core temperature of the body was 75° F. Assume that the time of death corresponds to t = 0 and that the core temperature at that time was 98.6° F. Determine how many hours elapsed before the body was found. [Hint: Let t1 > 0 denote the time that the body was discovered.] (Round your answer to one decimal place.) hr Need Help? Read It Talk to a Tutor

Answers

Answer: 0.7 hours has elapsed before the body was found

Step-by-step explanation:

Please see the attachments below

What is the amplitude ? How do I find it? do I add -3.8 to 3.8 then divide? Thank you in advance

Answers

Answer:

7.6subtract the midline from the peak value

Step-by-step explanation:

The amplitude is the difference between the peak value (3.8) and the midline (-3.8). You find it by subtracting the midline from the peak:

  amplitude = 3.8 -(-3.8)

  amplitude = 7.6

Anybody know how to do this, it's about angles. ​

Answers

Step-by-step explanation:

45°+90°+60°+X°=360° (being complete angle)

or,195°+X°=360°

or,X°=360°-195°

or,X°=165°

Therefore,valueof X is 165°.

Answer:

165

Step-by-step explanation:

The sum of angles at a point is always 360 degrees and you know all the angles apart from x. so 360-90-45-60=165.

Better notation would be 360 = x+45+60+90 and then you have to find out what x is by rearangin the equation.

Calculate the perimeter of the following parallelogram:
10 in
4 in
3 in

Answers

3 because when you catch

Answer:

28

Step-by-step explanation:

10=x 4=y

P=2(x+y)

P=2(10+4)

P=2(14)

P=28

17. El precio de los terrenos en Lima es proporcional al área e inversamente proporcional a su distancia con respecto al centro de la ciudad. Un empresario desea adquirir un terreno de 1200 m2 para instalar una pequeña planta procesadora que este localizada a una distancia máxima de 40 Km del centro de la ciudad. Si se sabe que un terreno de 900 m2 a 45 Km del centro de la ciudad cuesta S/ 250 000, ¿cuánto deberá pagar como mínimo dicho empresario para adquirir el terreno con las condiciones dadas?


Answers

Answer:

375000

Step-by-step explanation:

We have that in this case the following proportion would be fulfilled:

Price * Distance / area

Now, we have that for a distance of 45 km and an area of 900 m ^ 2 the price is 250,000, now for a distance of 40 km but with an area of 1,200 m ^ 2, how would the price be, we replace:

250000 * 45/900 = P * 40/1200

12500 * 1200/40 = P

P = 375000

Which means that for these conditions the price is 375000.

x/x+1-1/x-1+2x/x^2-1

Answers

Answer:

Input:

x/x + 1 - 1/x - 1 + 2×x/x^2 - 1

Result:

1/x

Multiply 6.4 x 108 by 3.1 x 10-5 and leave the
answer in standard form.​

Answers

Answer:

hope this.helps you

A study reports that college students work, on average, between 4.63 and 12.63 hours a week, with confidence coefficient .95. Which of the following statements are correct?MARK ALL THAT ARE TRUE.There are four correct answers. You must mark them all to get credit.A. The interval was produced by a technique that captures mu 95% of the time. B. 95% of all college students work between 4.63 and 12.63 hours a week. C. 95% of all samples will have x-bar between 4.63 and 12.63. D. The probability that mu is between 4.63 and 12.63 is .95. E. 95% of samples will produce intervals that contain mu. F. The probability that mu is included in a 95% CI is 0.95. G. We are 95% confident that the population mean time that college students work is between 4.63 and 12.63 hours a week.

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

Confidence coefficient is also the confidence level. A confidence coefficient of 0.95 is the same as a confidence level of 95%.

Confidence level is used to express how confident we are that the population mean lies within the calculated confidence interval. It expresses the possibility of getting the same result if tests are repeated. Since the study reports that college students work, on average, between 4.63 and 12.63 hours a week, with confidence coefficient .95, then the true statement is

G. We are 95% confident that the population mean time that college students work is between 4.63 and 12.63 hours a week.

Consider the original parallelogram and its reduction.

A parallelogram with side length 18 millimeters. A parallelogram with side length 3 millimeters.
Figures not drawn to scale.

What is the scale factor?
One-sixth
One-third
3
6

Answers

Answer:

The answer is 1/6.

Step-by-step explanation:

Answer:

A

Step-by-step explanation:

OPTION A

The difference between an ostrich's speed and a chicken's speed

is 31 miles per hour. An ostrich can run at a speed of 40 miles

per hour. Use mental math or the guess, check, and revise strategy

to solve the equation 40 – c= 31 to find c, the speed a chicken

can run.

Answers

Answer:

9 miles an hour

Step-by-step explanation:

9

A quick quiz consists of a multiple-choice question with 3 possible answers followed by a multiple-choice question with 5 possible answers. If both questions are answered with random guesses, find the probability that both responses are correct. Report the answer as a percent rounded to one decimal place accuracy. You need not enter the "%" symbol. prob = %

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

I assume that there is only one right answer in each multiple-choice question

If so:

P=(1/3)*(1/5)

P=1/15

P=0.06666666666

P≈0.067

P≈6.7%

evaluate (243/32)^-2/5*2^
-2

Answers

Answer:

1/9

Step-by-step explanation:

(243/32)^-2/5*2^ -2 = (3/2)^(5*-2/5) * 1/4 = (3/2)^-2 * 1/4 = 4/9 * 1/4 = 1/9

URGENT PLEASE ANSWER
inverse function
*see attachment*

Answers

Answer:

Horizontal shift to the RIGHT of one unit

Step-by-step explanation:

When looking at a square root equation, the transformation form is:

[tex]f(x) = a\sqrt{b(x-h)} +k[/tex]

'h' represents a horizontal shift of the graph. Therefore, in this instance:

[tex]f(x) = \sqrt{x-1}[/tex]

This means that there is a horizontal shift to the RIGHT of one unit.

if the degree of the monomial 3x^2y^az^a is 10 then what is a​

Answers

Answer:

4

Step-by-step explanation:

Answer:

4

Step-by-step explanation:

i did it on edge

Please Someone help do not understand it ASAP

Answers

Answer:

1a) 90 = 2y + 2(2x)        1b) 45 - 2x = y          

Step-by-step explanation:

1a) 90 = 2y + 2(2x)        

 

1b) 90 = 2y + 2(2x)           Use the equation from above and multiply

90 = 2y + 4x

-4x          - 4x               Subtract 4x from both sides

90 - 4x = 2y                 Divide both sides by 2

45 - 2x = y

All equilateral triangles are also isosceles triangles.

Answers

Answer:

True

Step-by-step explanation:

Isosceles triangles are a subset of equilateral triangles

Equilateral have all three sides the same while isosceles have at least 2 sides the same

Equilateral have all three angles equal while isosceles have at least 2 angles equal

Answer:

Yes

Step-by-step explanation:

An equilateral triangle is one where all three sides are of equal length.  (3)

An isosceles triangle has at least two sides of equal length. (2)

But, if it's the other way around than no

Evaluate the numerical expression.


9 × [(25 − 6) − (6 + 5)]

Answers

Answer:

72

Step-by-step explanation:

9 * (19 - 11)

= 9 * 8 = 72

Evaluate cos0 if sin0= 5/3

Answers

Answer:

cos0 = 4/3

Step-by-step explanation:

If sin0 = 5/3 then cos0 = 4/3

Sin is opposite/hypotenuse or 5/3.

Cos is adjacent/hypotenuse or 4/3

I found 4 because of Pythagorean Theorem on the triangle, which is known as a 345 triangle.

The population standard deviation for the height of college football players is 2.7 inches. If we want to estimate a 95% confidence interval for the population mean height of these players with a 0.65 margin of error, how many randomly selected players must be surveyed? (Round up your answer to nearest whole number, do not include any decimals) Answer:

Answers

Answer:

n = 66 (to the nearest whole number)

66 randomly selected players must be surveyed

Step-by-step explanation:

Confidence interval can be defined as a range of values so defined that there is a specified probability that the value of a parameter lies within it.

The confidence interval of a statistical data can be written as.

x+/-zr/√n

x+/-M.E

M.E = zr/√n

Making n the subject of formula;

n = (zr/M.E)^2 ........1

Given that;

Mean = x

Standard deviation r = 2.7 inches

Number of samples = n

Confidence interval = 95%

z(at 95% confidence) = 1.96

Margin of error M.E = 0.65 inches

Substituting the given values into equation 1;

n = (zr/M.E)^2

n = (1.96×2.7/0.65)^2

n = 66.28464852071

n = 66 (to the nearest whole number)

66 randomly selected players must be surveyed

Assume a 10-year period at 8% compounded continuously and find the following: (a) the present value; (b) the accumulated amount of money flow at t = 10.

f(t)= 400e^0.03t

Answers

Answer:

Step-by-step explanation:

Consider the function of the rate of flow of money in dollar per year is

[tex]f(t)= 400e^{0.03t}[/tex]

The objective is to find the present value of this income over 10 years period an assume an annual interest rate of 8% compounded continuously.

Given that,

[tex]f(t)= 400e^{0.03t}[/tex]

r = 0.08, t = 10

if f(t) is the rate of  continuously money flow at an interest rate r to T year,

the present value is,

[tex]P= \int\limits^T_0 {f}(t)e^{-rt} \, dt[/tex]

Now input the values to get

[tex]p=\int\limits^{10}_0 400e^{0.03t}*e^{-0.08t} dt[/tex]

[tex]=400\int\limits^{10}_0 e^{0.03t}*^{-0.08t} dt[/tex]

[tex]= 400\int\limits^{10}_0 e^{-0.05t} dt[/tex]

[tex]=400(-\frac{e^{-0.05t}}{0.05} )|_0^1^0[/tex]

[tex]=-\frac{400}{0.05} (e^{-0.05*10}-e^{-0.05*0})\\\\=-\frac{400}{0.05} (e^{-0.5}-e^{*0})\\\\=3147.75[/tex]

Therefore, the present value is $3147.75

A researcher wishes to estimate the percentage of adults who support abolishing the penny. What size sample should be obtained if he wishes the estimate to be within 3 percentage points with 95​% confidence if

​(a) he uses a previous estimate of 32​%?

​(b) he does not use any prior​ estimates?

Answers

Answer:

a) [tex]n=\frac{0.32(1-0.32)}{(\frac{0.03}{1.96})^2}=928.81[/tex]  

And rounded up we have that n=929

b) [tex]n=\frac{0.5(1-0.5)}{(\frac{0.03}{1.96})^2}=1067.11[/tex]  

And rounded up we have that n=1068

Step-by-step explanation:

Part a

The margin of error for the proportion interval is given by this formula:  

[tex] ME=z_{\alpha/2}\sqrt{\frac{\hat p (1-\hat p)}{n}}[/tex]    (a)  

And on this case we have that [tex]ME =\pm 0.03[/tex] and we are interested in order to find the value of n, if we solve n from equation (a) we got:  

[tex]n=\frac{\hat p (1-\hat p)}{(\frac{ME}{z})^2}[/tex]   (b)  

For a confidence of 95% we have that the significance is [tex]\alpha=0.05[/tex] and the critical value would be:

[tex] z = 1.96[/tex]

And replacing into equation (b) the values from part a we got:

[tex]n=\frac{0.32(1-0.32)}{(\frac{0.03}{1.96})^2}=928.81[/tex]  

And rounded up we have that n=929

Part b

For this case since we don't have prior info we can use as estimator for the true proportion the value [tex]\hat p=0.5[/tex] and replacing we got:

[tex]n=\frac{0.5(1-0.5)}{(\frac{0.03}{1.96})^2}=1067.11[/tex]  

And rounded up we have that n=1068

Factorize 225-49
[tex] {x}^{2} [/tex]

Answers

[tex]225-49x^2[/tex]

[tex]-49x^2+225[/tex]

[tex]=(7x+15)(-7x+15)[/tex]

Answer:

(15+7x)(15-7x)

Step-by-step explanation:

225-49 x² = 15² - (7x)² = (15+7x)(15-7x)

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